Why the Autumn Trekking Season Turned Fatal in the Himalayas
Clear skies, gentle winds and a panoramic view of Himalayan peaks covered in snow - this describes the fall setting that trekkers on the world's highest peak have come to love.
But this appears to be changing.
Shifting Climate Conditions
Climate scientists report the monsoon now stretches into autumn, which is historically the mountain tourism season.
Throughout this prolonged tail end of monsoon, they have documented at least one occurrence of extreme precipitation nearly every year for the past ten years, with high-altitude conditions becoming more hazardous.
Latest Crisis on Everest
Last weekend, a unexpected snowstorm stranded hundreds of visitors near the eastern face of Everest for multiple days in bitterly cold temperatures at an altitude of more than 4,900m.
Nearly six hundred trekkers were escorted to security by the end of Tuesday, according to sources.
A single person had died from extreme cold and mountain sickness, but the remaining individuals were said to be in good condition.
Similar Incidents Across the Region
The emergency was on the northern slope but a comparable situation had unfolded on the southern slope, where a Korean climber lost his life on another Himalayan summit.
The world learned after some delay because communications were hit by torrential rains and heavy snowfall.
Officials estimate that landslides and sudden floods in the region have killed approximately 60 individuals over the previous week.
"It is highly unusual for autumn when we anticipate the skies to remain clear," stated an experienced mountain guide.
Economic Impact
Considering this is the favored period, frequent extreme weather events like these have "affected our mountaineering and climbing business," he added.
The rainy period in northern India and Nepal typically continues from early summer to mid-September, but not anymore.
"Research demonstrates that the majority of the annual cycles in the previous decade have had rainy seasons lasting until the middle of autumn, which is certainly a change," explained a senior meteorology official.
Increasing Weather Extremes
More worrying is the intense precipitation and snowfall the concluding phase of the period produces, like it did this time on 4 and 5 October.
High in the Himalayas, such extreme conditions means snowstorms and snowstorms, which constitutes a huge risk for hiking, mountaineering and tourism.
Personal Experiences
Exactly what happened last weekend when the conditions changed quite abruptly - the winds began roaring, temperatures dropped sharply and sightlines dropped drastically.
The road that had easily led the hikers to what was expected to be a stunning pitstop was now covered in white accumulation and impossible to traverse.
Still, one hiker, who had hiked the Himalayas more than a dozen occasions, said he had "never experienced weather like these" before.
Scientific Explanations
One major driver is the higher amount of humidity in the atmosphere because of how the world has been heating up, researchers explain.
This has contributed to heavy precipitation over a short span of duration, often after a prolonged dry spell – unlike in the past when monsoon showers were spread evenly over four months.
A Turbocharged Monsoon
Climate experts say the monsoons in South Asia at times seem to have become stronger because they are increasingly interacting with an additional atmospheric phenomenon, the western weather pattern.
This is a low pressure system that originates in the Mediterranean region and moves east - it transports chillier temperatures that brings rains and sometimes snow to northern India, neighboring countries and the Himalayan region.
Climate Warming Effects
Researchers have also discovered that in a warming world, the increasing interaction between westerly disturbances and monsoons is causing an additional atypical outcome.
The warmer atmosphere is forcing the clouds to greater altitudes, which indicates these weather systems are now capable to pass over the Himalayas and reach the Tibetan plateau and additional regions that previously experienced less so much rain before.
"The transformation is the predictability of weather patterns; we can't assume that conditions will behave the identical from season to season," said an experienced expedition guide.
"This implies adaptable scheduling, immediate choices, and experienced leadership [in the Himalayas] have become increasingly essential."