Netherlands Polls: Key Players and Main Issues in Early Election
Voters in the Netherlands are preparing to possibly exchange the most conservative administration in modern history with a more moderate and pragmatic alliance during snap parliamentary elections scheduled for October 29.
The Situation and Why It Matters
Snap general elections were triggered after the collapse of the outgoing government in June, when far-right figure the Freedom party leader pulled his PVV from an increasingly fractious and largely ineffective ruling coalition.
Wilders' party had finished shockingly first in the previous general election, and after prolonged talks established a unstable multi-party rightwing coalition with the populist Farmer-Citizen Movement, centrist New Social Contract and liberal-conservative VVD.
However, Wilders' government allies considered him too controversial for the prime minister position, which was given to a former intelligence chief. Wilders, an immigration-skeptic commentator who has required security detail for twenty years, began sniping from outside government.
He ultimately triggered the coalition breakup on 3 June after his partners refused to adopt a radical 10-point immigration restriction proposal that included deploying the army to guard frontiers, rejecting all refugee applicants, shutting down asylum centers and sending home all Syrian refugees.
Although backing of the PVV has declined, polls indicate the rightwing, anti-Islam party is again likely to win the most seats in parliament. But, major Netherlands political formations have all ruled out forming a government with Wilders.
At least sixteen political groups are forecast to gain representation, but none is projected to secure above about one-fifth of the vote. Typically, the next Dutch government, typically an significant force on the EU and world stage, will emerge only after coalition negotiations that could take several months.
Electoral Mechanics and Party Environment
There are 150 MPs in the Dutch parliament, meaning a administration requires 76 mandates to form a majority. No single party ever manages this, and the Netherlands has been governed by multi-party governments for more than a century.
Representatives are chosen every four years – sooner when administrations fail – through proportional representation, based on an approved list of candidates in a country-wide district: any party that wins 0.67% of the vote is assured of a seat.
As in many European nations, Dutch politics have been marked in recent decades by a sharp decline in backing of the historical ruling parties from the centre-right and left, whose electoral support has decreased from more than 80% in the 1980s to barely two-fifths now.
In the Netherlands, this trend has been paralleled by a remarkable multiplication of minor political groups: 27 are running this time, including a party for the over-50s, a party for youth, a animal rights party, a party for universal basic income, and a party for sport.
Major Parties and Main Issues
Currently leading is Wilders' PVV, forecast to drop as many as eight of the 37 seats it secured last election. It proposes, among other measures, a total moratorium on asylum, Ukrainian men to be sent home, the military to fight "urban violence", and an end to "woke indoctrination" in schools.
Two parties, of the moderate right and left, are neck-and-neck after the PVV. The Christian Democrats (CDA) dominated Netherlands government from the late 1970s to the beginning of the nineties, and again in the early 2000s, but slumped to only five mandates in the last election.
However, under its young leader, its youthful rising star, who entered politics just recently, the party has bounced back with a campaign emphasizing the dire Dutch housing crisis and a commitment of "normal, civilised politics". It is on course for as many as 26 seats.
GreenLeft/Labour (GL/PvdA), an electoral alliance between the environmentalist party and the 80-year-old Dutch Labour party that is expected to become a full-blown merger, is projected to win a similar number, according to survey data.
Headed by the seasoned former European commissioner its leader, it has made constructing additional housing its primary focus, and has debatedly proposed a immigration limit of between 40,000 and 60,000 people a year in its manifesto.
Three additional groups appear set to be important players in the new parliament.
The liberal-progressive D66 is on course to gain seats – securing as many as seventeen, from its current nine – under its direct-speaking youthful head, with a platform focused on housing (it plans to build 10 new cities) and an "individual basic benefit" for recipients.
The center-right VVD, the party of the ex-premier (now Nato chief), is predicted to slump to no more than sixteen mandates from its current 24, with its head, accused of taking the party too far to the right, held responsible for its decline. It is promising business tax cuts and less welfare.
The anti-establishment, strictly rightwing JA21 is a spin-off from another far-right party – the once popular, now scandal-hit FvD – and seems to be benefiting from an departure of supporters from the PVV, BBB and VVD. It could secure fourteen mandates.
Besides the VVD and PVV, both other partners in the unsuccessful outgoing coalition, the BBB and NSC, are projected to lose out, with the NSC not even sure of representation in parliament.
The top issues currently have been migration policy, with several – occasionally aggressive – protests against proposed asylum facilities for refugee applicants, the living expenses, and the perennial Dutch problem of accommodation (the country is short of 400,000 homes).
Potential New Government
Given the highly fragmented state of Dutch politics, what alliances are actually possible is equally significant as who finishes first (or in this case, probably runner-up, since no major party will partner with Wilders, who insists he wants to lead a minority government).
Following the vote, MPs first designate an informateur, who explores possible alliances. Once a workable alliance has been found, a formateur, usually the leader of the biggest prospective member, begins discussing the government program. This can take months.
Multiple options look plausible, typically including a combination of parties from moderate left and moderate right. The most probable, according to political analysts, include CDA and GL/PvdA, plus D66 and one or more minor groups potentially including the conservative party.
