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During the 2016 campaign for the US presidency, Viktor Orbán emerged as the exclusive EU chief to support the Republican candidate. This support came as no shock, given the Hungarian leader's championing of controversial ideas like great replacement ideology and his crackdowns on media freedom. Analysts observe that Hungary's premier practically laid the groundwork for the Make America Great Again campaign, with one-time strategist Steve Bannon hailing Orbán as the "Trump before Trump".

Political Favors Before Hungary's Polls

In recent days, ahead of key votes in Hungary just six months away, Donald Trump returned some political favors. While Orbán seeks a fifth term in office presiding over a country he labels an non-liberal system, his political group currently trails in opinion polls. A meeting to Washington yielded not just Trump campaign souvenirs; it secured considerably more valuable campaign boosts.

Waivers and Financial Shields

Even though previously instructing European nations on the necessity to stop all resource supplies from Russia, and threatening sanctions against nations still to buy Russian oil, the US president consented to grant a unique waiver for the Hungarian government – the top consumer among EU members of Russian petroleum. According to Mr Orbán, the Trump administration also agreed to offer a “financial shield” to Budapest should it faces any future difficulties, especially as Brussels is still blocking billions in EU funding to Hungary because of failures to uphold the rule of law.

The specifics of this arrangement seem somewhat murky. However the US president has shown his inclination to assist political friends as the United States provided a a $20 billion loan to the Argentine leader, Javier Milei. While Mr Orbán failed to obtain a Trump trip to Budapest to the Hungarian capital, the Oval Office meeting nonetheless was a productive session.

Brussels' Worries and Geopolitical Stakes

Among European leaders, Mr Trump’s intervention likely highlighted the strategic importance of the forthcoming polls, ahead of which the opposition candidate, Péter Magyar, holds a clear edge in surveys. European leaders know not to expect steady principles from the Trump White House, and accept the American leader's efforts to belittle the EU. However Mr Orbán’s exemption – which came at the price of an deal to acquire American natural gas and nuclear power – openly contradicts European goals to end imports of Russian energy by the year 2027.

• Since 2022, the top importers in the EU of Russian oil, the Hungarian and Slovak nations, have contributed substantial funds to the Russian military campaign.
• Simultaneously, the Hungarian government has often employed the blocking vote to hinder advancement in Ukraine’s EU accession talks.
• As Europe strives to develop a cohesive plan for backing Ukraine, and bolstering its position in any later diplomatic discussions, Orbán's pro-Russia stance at the diplomatic table continues to be a major hurdle.

Rival's Approach

Mr Magyar has avoided vowing a drastic turnaround on Ukraine, and focused his campaigning on home affairs, while emphasizing the need for Hungary to start acting as a constructive EU member. After enduring so many years of trolling, Brussels can only hold out hope. Orbán's disregard to core EU ideals, such as the support for minority protections and the autonomy of civic groups, has long been a source of shame for the EU. His persistent opposition regarding Ukraine threatens to weaken its security prospects.